The triangular trade dynamics between the United States, Russia, and India underwent significant reconfiguration in 2025, with energy flows adapting to bilateral policy pressures. While US crude imports to India increased by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion in the same period.
December 2025 illustrated the evolving bilateral relationships. Russian crude shipments to India declined by 15.15% to $2.71 billion from $3.2 billion in December 2024, reflecting strained Russia-India energy trade. Simultaneously, US crude exports to India grew by 31% to $569.30 million, demonstrating strengthening US-India energy ties.
Other bilateral relationships in India’s energy trade also showed positive momentum. Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments to India surged 61% to $1.75 billion in December 2025, reflecting robust Saudi-India energy cooperation. Iraq maintained steady engagement with a 4.56% increase to $2.37 billion, while UAE-India energy trade grew 6% to $1.65 billion.
The reconfiguration of these bilateral energy flows appears linked to US trade policy toward India. The 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, imposed on August 27, 2025, was designed to discourage India from purchasing sanctioned Russian petroleum, effectively using US-India trade leverage to influence Russia-India energy relationships. Russian crude imports declined from $3.62 billion in July 2025 to $2.71 billion in December 2025.
India’s comprehensive crude oil imports from approximately 39 countries totaled $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 reached $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The shifting bilateral dynamics reflect the complex intersection of trade policy and energy security.
