If anyone wondered whether the collapse of a $100 billion deal would cool enthusiasm for AI investment, Nvidia has provided a definitive answer. The chip maker is reportedly preparing a $30 billion equity stake in OpenAI, part of a $100 billion funding round that will value the ChatGPT creator at $730 billion. AI investment is not cooling — it is restructuring.
The investor lineup for the round is formidable. Amazon, SoftBank, Microsoft, and Nvidia are all expected to participate, creating a coalition of some of the world’s most powerful technology and investment companies. The $730 billion valuation would place OpenAI just behind SpaceX among the world’s most valuable private companies — a remarkable figure for a company that has yet to demonstrate a clear path to sustainable profit.
The background to Nvidia’s investment is by now well-documented. A $100 billion deal announced last September was built on chip purchase commitments that critics called circular from day one. Nvidia would give OpenAI capital; OpenAI would use it to buy Nvidia chips. The arrangement made for a great headline but was always structurally questionable. When reports confirmed it was never binding and that OpenAI had been independently exploring alternatives, it dissolved.
OpenAI went public with chip partnerships involving AMD and Broadcom, diversifying its hardware supply chain and removing the strategic logic that had underpinned the original Nvidia deal. Nvidia’s decision to maintain its financial relationship despite this development — through a clean equity stake rather than a chip-linked arrangement — speaks to the depth of its conviction about OpenAI’s future value.
For all the optimism reflected in a $730 billion valuation, OpenAI faces challenges that are hard to wave away. ChatGPT’s market position has weakened. Anthropic is gaining ground. Cash continues to flow out faster than it flows in. Advertising is controversial. Key investors are hedging. And multiple chip partners have expressed muted near-term expectations. The AI industry’s appetite for investment is undiminished — but the test of that investment will come when the bills come due.
