Global energy stability has been significantly eroded by three weeks of Iran war, and US oil prices remain in turmoil with fresh turbulence expected Monday. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan forecasts pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, with $4 gasoline remaining within the realm of possibility. The sustained conflict has made stable energy prices impossible in the near term for American consumers.
The crisis erupted on February 28, when US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Iran, immediately disrupting global oil markets and triggering a sustained price escalation. From below $3 per gallon before the first strikes, the national gasoline average has risen 23% to $3.70, driven by the systematic targeting of oil infrastructure and the closure of key shipping routes. Consumer organizations have raised urgent concerns about the speed and severity of the price increases.
The US attack on Kharg Island on Friday, which targeted a facility crucial to Iran’s oil export operations, added new pressure to an already strained global supply picture. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for roughly 20% of global oil supply, continues to deny international buyers access to a vital shipping corridor. Brent crude oscillated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude settled near $94 following a brief Sunday surge to $100.
California has been the most severely affected state, with pump averages exceeding $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations charging over $8. National diesel prices for commercial transport could reach $5.05 to $5.15 per gallon. The CEOs of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all engaged with White House officials about the worsening supply outlook, with Exxon’s Darren Woods particularly vocal about the threat of speculative trading amplifying price increases beyond what supply conditions alone would drive.
US equity markets opened modestly higher Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining around 1% as crude prices briefly pulled back. Oil company shares have reached record highs since the conflict began, underscoring the financial windfall that the elevated price environment has created for energy sector investors. For American households and businesses, however, the ongoing turmoil in oil markets represents a serious and growing economic challenge.
